Sunday, October 10, 2010

If you want something interesting, go to part II.

Part I: Housekeeping
You want to see a video entry about Oktoberfest. So do I. I have good news and bad news regarding that entry: the bad news is that certain technical difficulties require me to restructure the whole thing; the good news is that certain recent developments also require me to restructure the whole thing, so I would have taken it all back to the drawing board regardless of the technical difficulties.

But Jared, what certain recent developments could possibly keep you from making a super-special video entry?

Please see Figure 1.
Figure 1.

I had the good fortune to celebrate the Cannstatter Volksfest in Stuttgart, the city’s answer to Munich’s Oktoberfest and the second-largest beer fest in the country. While I deeply desire to post an entry about it as soon as possible, my better judgment tells me to do something else instead and give myself time to think about all the ways I can clearly communicate just how amazing these last two weekends have been. In order to experience as little stress as possible during the project as a whole, I will develop it as a two or three part epic to be released soon after this entry.

So yeah, this one isn’t about Oktoberfest. It’s not that funny, either. My apologies. If you really want me to make some funnies, I’ll try to throw in a picture or something. But don't get greedy. Funnies don’t grow on trees, you know.

Part II: The Good Stuff
I had a fairly vague understanding of German politics and social issues before I came here. That’s not to say that I’m an expert , which I guess is my point – everything I’m about to say is probably wrong simply because of my Midwestern American viewpoint. There’s my disclaimer, now here’s my analysis.

In the late 1980s the government of Baden-Württemberg decided their train system needed an upgrade. Over the next 30 years the idea ballooned into the Stuttgart 21 project, a high-speed train line that would connect Paris with Vienna, Budapest, and Bratislava. Stuttgart would be right in the middle, the new central hub of inter-European travel. The proposed station would be built underground, boasting state-of-the art architecture and a battery of energy conservation techniques. The completed station would introduce energy-saving high-speed trains that would drastically cut traffic, travel time, and energy consumption; and building an underground station would open up a whole new quarter of the city for urban redevelopment and environmental initiatives. According to the government’s estimates, the city would be wealthier, cleaner, more beautiful, and more sustainable than ever before.

Artistic rendering of the approved final concept, unicorn petting zoo not pictured.
 
The government’s original cost estimate was 4.5 billion Euros, a price tag the citizens of Baden-Württemberg reluctantly accepted. After the ruling party (which promised a 4.5 billion budget) was elected the estimate rose to 4.8 billion. Shortly thereafter a non-government agency did its own study of the plans and announced that Stuttgart 21 would require at least 7 billion Euros, not including long-term upkeep.

Further evidence that the government made their calculations using a single abacus.


After decades of design and cost negotiations, construction began on February 10, 2010. At this point the people of Stuttgart realized that making Stuttgart 21 a reality also entails the demolition of a wing of the original train station, a stretch of the Schlossgarten, and many of its ancient trees.

Possibly inspired by Japan’s urban redevelopment strategy.

Upon seeing the destruction of two of their interwar relics, a section of Stuttgart’s population ignited a protest movement. Hundreds and eventually thousands of citizens took to the streets, aggressively but legally asserting their say in the matter. Before the recent negotiations, things had gotten darker and bloodier with each rally as children joined the protests while the adults around them took greater and greater risks. In the chaos many police officers and certain protesters took opportunities to escalate the conflict, and the release of many violent and generally unflattering photos of the riot police in action has led protesters, reporters, bloggers, and politicians to proclaim a spirit of martial law and totalitarianism in Stuttgart. Standard media sensationalism aside, there appears to be a good case for excessive force on the part of the riot police. The protesters have met with considerable if only momentary success: demolition has temporarily stopped and a mediator has been appointed to reach some sort of compromise, although many believe it to be impossible.


With all of this information now acknowledged, one must wonder where the outrage was in 2007, when Stuttgart 21 was approved all the way down to the city council and where there should have been the greatest level of transparency between the people and their representatives. It turns out that in 2007 a petition was signed by 67,000 citizens asking for a popular vote to determine the approval of the project. After submission it was promptly caught in the finest, densest, and most impenetrable web ever conceived by man: bureaucracy. The politicians and businessmen paid no attention and negotiated without it.


That event raises a disturbing question often posed by reporters and supporters of the opposition: how bad must the system be, how strong must the influences of party politics and big businesses in Baden-Württemberg be that the people were not heard in 2007 despite the names of 67,000 people? Well, what I perceive the answer to be is not nearly as exciting as the lead-in. Stuttgart is a city of 600,000 people. A petition with 67,000 signatures is 11% of the population – hardly enough to be influential. Two surveys taken in the last two years suggest that the citizens’ opinions on this matter are currently split pretty close down the middle. Despite all the negative hype, thousands of citizens want the Stuttgart 21 project to happen, and while the opposition was treated unfairly in 2007 when the government negotiated with the rail companies behind closed doors, there really was no reason to stop all negotiations on account of what appeared to be an 11% opposition. A petition of that size indicates that had the document’s request been honored, Stuttgart 21 would have been approved anyway.


So it is the act of ignoring a petition that outrages them so much. It’s not all about money or space or preservation of historical sites; it’s the principle of the thing, the belief that their right to be represented was denied by the politicians they elected.


Here’s a question for you: should the government have accepted the petition even though it was signed by only 11% of the population, an indicator that a popular vote would have almost certainly ended in the approval of the station? Or did they, as elected representatives, have the right to ignore what was at that time a minority and decide what was best for the city?


Post your thoughts in the comments.

-Jared

4 comments:

  1. I think they should have made hover crafts instead but that's just me. On a serious note though I'm really not sure. I mean the petition should have been acknowledged at least, while it may not have been enough to stop the project I think compromises could have been made early on to eliminate a good portion of all the fuss.

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  2. It's interesting, but the outrage you report parallels the populist reaction to our current U.S. Congress which rammed the stimulus and health care reform bills (both with over a thousand pages of cryptic legalese) through without popular support AND without most representatives even reading them.

    Both are incredibly arrogant and quite frustrating.

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  3. I don't think the petition deserved to be ignored, but I think this is a situation where majority rule is the best way to go. What other option is there?

    However, if I've understood you correctly, the people are now closer to a 50/50 split than an 11/89 split, and this is largely because of outrage over the petition being ignored. If this is the case, it seems that the original 11% should be happy that it was ignored! Apparently, the fact that it was ignored added an awful lot of fuel to their fire, and they might even end up being in the majority.

    Now I don't know if this transportation project is actually the best thing for the people, but apparently 89% originally thought so. Therefore, I'm a bit baffled by the fact that so many people have now changed sides just because of the bullshit beauracracy. As I said, the politicians dropped the ball (as they usually do) in terms of listening to all of the people, but at the same time it seems that they were actually trying to do the popular thing.

    I'd write a little more, but I have to go to class. What do you think?

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  4. I guess what I have an issue with is that we do not know about the methodology of figuring that 11% of the population signed the petition. Was it 11% of the total population including juveniles and children who cannot vote, incarcerated persons, people in hospitals and health care facilities, and foreigners who cannot vote. In addition, of those persons who were eligible to sign the petition, did everyone in the population have an equal chance of: being educated on the issue, being exposed to the petition in such a manner that would allow deep thought on their stance on the issue, having equal access to the petition, etc? Was the population’s personality types taken into consideration so that those who usually would not sign a petition even if they supported it had it presented in such a manner that eliminated bias or the belief of social repercussions?

    All of these factors I feel are important to consider because that 11% may be around 40 to 50 percent (maybe more) after ineligible persons are counted from the whole population. I feel these points lead into my next argument.

    Was the use of the 11% statistic manipulated by those who opposed the petition to show that there is little concern for the project, and to try and raise support against the petition? In the US we often see politics use the same statistic to show support for whatever side.

    I feel that the 11% and the current split (50/50) survey may have possibly been the same number throughout this entire episode. If this was not the case then why did the government see fit to conduct business behind closed doors? Was there something to hide? Were political favors handed out to companies that supported certain politicians?

    If anything, petitions in a free society should be used to give politicians insight into potential problem areas, such as this project. Petitions when handled correctly should inform our government to investigate what the electorate wants and then based on that outcome make a decision based on what was found. I believe the government choosing not to investigate the concerns of the petition and determine the level of popular support for the community project was due to those same politicians being afraid of what they would find.

    So maybe the pundits got it wrong. The current 50/50 split may not be just due to the fact that the petition was ignored in the first place. Maybe it was because a 50/50 split always existed after other social variables were considered. We will never know because we cannot turn back time, but the government can work to make it right by now investigating the tone of the population, and allow for free speech from concerned citizens guide the judgment of their elected representatives.

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